FINDINGS
VOTE COMPRISED BY INCORPORATED AND UNINCORPORATED AREAS
- Voters within the legal boundaries of the City of Houston cast 44.8% of the total ballots: Spanish-surname voters comprised an estimated 9.0%, Asian-surnames an estimated 2.3%, and non-Spanish or Asian-surname an estimated 33.5%.
- Voters in Unincorporated Harris County cast 44.1% of the total ballots: Spanish-surname voters comprised an estimated 8.8% Spanish-surname, Asian-surname an estimated 2.4% , and non Spanish or Asian-surname and estimated 32.8%.
- Voters in small incorporated cities cast 11.1% of the total ballots: Spanish-surname voters comprised an estimated 2.5% Spanish-surname, Asian-surname an estimated 0.4%, and non Spanish or Asian-surname and estimated 8.2%.
SURNAME VOTE
- Voters with a non-Spanish or non-Asian surname cast and estimated 74.1% of the votes.
- Given that the 2014-2018 ACS places the Black CVAP in Harris County at 22% and the lower turnout rate for Spanish-surnamed voters, Black voters may have cast about 22% of the ballots.
- Given that the 2014-2018 ACS places the White Alone CVAP in Harris County at 41%, the high White turnout rate and the lower turnout rate for all other voters, White voters may have cast about 50% of the ballots.
- Voters with a Spanish-surname cast and estimated 20.4% of the votes.
- Voters with an Asian-surname cast and estimated 5.1% of the votes.
VOTER TURNOUT
- The estimated participation rate for voters with a none Spanish or Asian surname was 70%.
- The estimated participation rate for voters with an Spanish-surname was 59%.
- The estimated participation rate for voters with an Asian surname was 66%.
- The estimated overall voter participation rate in Harris County was 67%.
- Of the 34 incorporated cities in Harris County,
- The voter turnout in eleven (11) cities was 82% to 86%. In these cities, the estimated White alone mean citizen voting age population was 79%.
- The voter turnout in ten (10) cities was between 72% and 79%. In these cities, the estimated White alone mean citizen voting age population was 78%.
- The voter turnout in seven (7) cities was between 60% and 69%. In these cities, the estimated White alone mean citizen voting age population was 54%.
- The voter turnout in five (5) cities was between 52% and 59%. In these cities, the estimated White alone mean citizen voting age population was 54%.
- The voter turnout in one (1) city was 46%. In this city, the estimated White alone mean citizen voting age population was 22%.
- In cities where the citizen voting age population is predominately White, the voter participation levels for Spanish and Asian surnames were also very high.
NOTE: The Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) is based on 2014-2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. The total voters are based on Official Harris County Voter History for the November 3, 2020 Election. The total registered voters are based on Official Harris County Voter Roll for the November 3, 2020 Election. The Voter Turnout rate is based on total voters divided by total registered voters. The percent of vote is based on political subdivision total voters divided by countywide total. The estimates of voter ethnicity/race are based on Spanish-surname and Asian-surname queries performed on Official Harris County (TX) November 3, 2020 Election Records. Lastly, the estimates of voter without a Spanish or Asian surname are based on subtracting the Spanish-surname and Asian-surname voters and registered voters from the overall total of voters and registered voters.
…analysis to be continued…
