In January of 2018, this assertion appeared in a story of a major newspaper in 3rd largest County in the nation, “just 28 percent of registered Latino voters cast a ballot in 2016, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.” The contention raised the following questions about the portrayal of the participation of Latino voters in the presidential election: Is it accurate? What do official Election records show?
An in-depth analysis of Harris County’s official voter lists for the Presidential elections from 2004 to 2016 indicate that the participation of Spanish-surnamed voters reached unprecedented heights in the 2016 Election. A comparison of the Spanish-surnamed voter totals for each election shows that the 2008 Spanish-surnamed vote increased by 22,881, compared to the 2004 Elections. That, the 2012 Spanish-surname vote increased by 18,026, compared to the 2008 Election. And that, the Spanish-surnamed vote in the 2016 Election increased by a remarkable 70,662, compared to the 2012 Election.
Driven by a near doubling of Spanish-surnamed early voters, the overall Spanish-surnamed voter turnout in 2016 was 53 percent, compared to the 46 percent in the 2012 Election. The improvement helped Spanish-surnamed voters account for more than half of the additional 134,731 general election votes cast in the 2016 Election in Harris County, compared to the 2012 Election. It pushed the Spanish surnamed vote from 179,084 in 2012 to 250,211 in 2016.
The increased Spanish-surnamed voter turnout in the 2016 Nov. Election is confirmed by the increased Spanish-surnamed voter turnout in State Representative District (SRD) within Harris County. In SRDs held by Anglo or non-Hispanic White Republicans then, the combined average turnout in 2016 for Spanish-surnamed registered voters was 58 percent compared to 53 percent in 2012. In the six SRDs held by African American Democrats, the combined average turnout for Spanish-surnamed registered voters was 53 percent, compared to 47 percent in 2012. In the two SRDs held by Asian Democrats, the combined average turnout for Spanish-surnamed registered voters was 52 percent, compared to 44 percent in 2012. In the five SRDs held by Latino Democrats, the combined average turnout for Spanish-surnamed registered voters was 49 percent, compared to 42 percent in 2012.
The Spanish-surnamed voter analysis in State Representative Districts also shows Spanish-surnamed voters are dispersed throughout Harris County. Going into the 2016 election, voter records show that 37 percent of the county’s Spanish-surnamed registered voter population resided in State Representative Districts (SRDs) held by Latino Democrats. These SRDs produced 34 percent of the County’s Spanish-surnamed voters in the Nov. 2016 election. SRDs held by non-Hispanic White Republicans accounted for the same percent of Spanish-surnamed registered voters but produced 40 percent of the Spanish-surnamed voters. As it relates to other SRDs, 21 percent of the countywide Spanish-surnamed registered voter population resided in SRDs held by African-Americans Democrats. Those SRDs produced 20 percent of the county’s 2016 Spanish-surnamed vote. Six-percent of the county’s 2016 Spanish-surnamed registered voters resided in SRDs held by Asian American Democrats. Those SRDs produced 6 percent of the county’s Spanish-surnamed vote.
Interestingly, a District then held by a Republican, SRD 134, experienced the highest turnout for Spanish-surnamed registered voters at 66 percent; while, a District held by a Democrat, SRD 144, had the lowest Spanish-surnamed registered voter turnout at 46 percent. The disparate Spanish-surnamed voter turnout in these particular districts suggests that education and income have an impact on voter participation. According to the 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate, in SRD 134, 73 percent of the population that is twenty-five year or older had a bachelor degree or higher and the annual income for 75 percent of its households was above fifty-thousand dollars. In SRD 144, six percent of the population that is twenty-five year or older had a bachelor degree or higher and the annual income for 62 percent of its households was below fifty-thousand.
The Spanish-surnamed analysis revealed that 18 to 39-year-old Spanish-surnamed voters played an important role in the growth of the Spanish-surnamed vote, producing about 35,000 of the estimated 70,000 additional Spanish-surnamed votes cast in the 2016 Election. A comparison of the 2012 and 2016 Nov. Elections Spanish-surnamed vote totals show that the 18 to 39-year-old Spanish surnamed voter turnout jumped from 38 to 47 percent. The growth of the Spanish-surnamed vote coincided with Spanish-surnamed voter registration increases. Based on County voter records, Spanish-surnamed registration went from approximately 386,000 for the 2012 Election to 469,000 for the 2016 Election with 18 to 39-year-old Spanish-surnamed registered voters comprising about half of the total Spanish-surnamed registered voters in the County.
The information garnered from Spanish-surnamed voter queries provides strong evidence that in the 2016 election, Latinos voted at a higher rate than was reported in that newspaper story. Moreover, the figures on the Census Voter Registration and Voting Report for the 2016 Election do not support the dismal 28 percent figure cited as the Latino voter turnout. According to the Census 2016 Current Population Survey, 47 percent of the US citizen Latinos that responded that they were registered to vote said they voted. Even then, according to the Spanish-surnamed findings, the actual Census Latino voter turnout figure is only in line with the turnout rate for Spanish-surnamed voters who reside in traditional Latino areas. The widespread nature of Spanish surnamed voters in Harris County and varied voter turnout revealed by the Spanish-surnamed analysis suggest that voting in predominantly Latino areas is no longer an adequate barometers to measure the Latino voter turnout.
Unfortunately, in this instance, wittingly or unwittingly, a Census statistic seems to have been misread and another narrative misconstruing the Latino voter turnout was perpetuated.
(The quote denigrating the 2016 Latino voter turnout appeared in a story published in January 2018. By the end of the year, the newspaper’s Austin Bureau Chief whose name appeared on the byline resigned under suspicion of quoting non-existent persons.)
