Is voter registration among young females increasing in response to the US Supreme Court overturning Roe vs. Wade? The Supreme Court decision occurred on June 24. So, the answer to that question may not be completely known until the voter registration deadlines for the 2022 Midterm election cycle closes. However, at this point, the number of registered voters who self-identify as “female” and whose registrations became effective between January 1 and the 31st Thursday of 2018 and 2022 can be compared to determined if the number of female registered voters have increased in Harris County, Texas.
Harris County is the most populous county in Texas and the third largest in the nation. According to the 2016-2020 US Census Bureau American Community Survey, Whites comprise 38.6% of the citizen voting age population (CVAP) in the county, Hispanics 31%, African Americans 22.1%, Asians 6.5%, and others 1.8%. That is, the population that meet the age and citizenship requirements to participate in the electoral process. It is important to understand the CVAP of a political jurisdiction to help place context to any findings related to voting and registration.
Here are the preliminary findings of this analysis of Harris County:
General Female Registered Voters During the Period Analyzed and Quantified
- Compared to the voter registrations that went into effect from January 1 to the 31st Thursday in 2018, the number of female registered voters in Harris County increased by 23.8% during the same period in 2022.
- Among the general female registered voters, 18–24-year-old females accounted for 24.5% of the registrations in 2018 and 23.5% in 2022.
- Among the general female registered voters, 30–34-year-old females saw largest percent increase.
Female Registered Voters whose Surname is NOT Spanish or Asian During the Period Analyzed and Quantified
- Compared to the voter registrations that went into effect from January 1 to the 31st Thursday in 2018, the number of female registered voters whose surname is NOT Spanish or Asian in Harris County increased by 20.9% during the same period in 2022.
- Among the female registered voters whose surname is NOT Spanish or Asian, 18–24-year-old females accounted for 20.6% of the registrations in 2018 and 20% in 2022.
- Among the the female registered voters whose surname is NOT Spanish or Asian, 35–39-year-old females saw largest percent increase.
- Overall, female registered voters whose surname is NOT Spanish or Asian accounted for 64.7% of the increase among female registration.
Spanish-surname Female Registered Voters During the Period Analyzed and Quantified
- Compared to the voter registrations that went into effect from January 1 to the 31st Thursday in 2018, the number of Spanish-surname registered voters in Harris County increased by 29.2% during the same period in 2022.
- Among the Spanish-surname registered voters, 18–24-year-olds accounted for 37.6% of the registrations in 2018 and 34.9% in 2022. Spanish-surname female registered voters are younger than any other major voting age group.
- Among the Spanish-surname registered voters, 30–34-year-olds saw largest percent increase.
- Overall, female registered voters whose surname is NOT Spanish or Asian accounted for 27% of the increase among female registration.
Asian-surname Registered Voters During the Period Analyzed and Quantified
- Compared to the voter registrations that went into effect from January 1 to the 31st Thursday in 2018, the number of Asian-surname registered voters in Harris County increased by 47.7% during the same period in 2022.
- Among the Asian-surname female registered voters, 18–24-year-old females accounted for 24.7% of the registrations in 2018 and 21.2% in 2022.
- Among the Asian-surname female registered voters, 50–54-year-olds saw largest percent increase.
- Overall, Asian-surname female registered voters accounted for 8.2% of the increase among female registrations.
Overall, this snapshot of female registered voters going into the 2018 midterms elections and the upcoming elections show that 18-24-year-old females comprised the largest percent of the total female registered voters during the period examined. But, it also shows that the percent for that age group seems to have dropped slightly in 2022 possibly due to increased female registrations in other age groups.
In all, according to the complete 2018 Midterm voter registration lists and the August 2022 list, of the registered voters who self-identified as female and male in Harris County, the ratio is holding at 53% females and 47% percent for males. The question partisan stakeholders want answered is how will that advantage translate in a political climate headlined by the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe vs Wade?
