So why did the Democratic Presidential Ticket win in Georgia and lose in Texas?
Georgia and Texas: Demographics Similar in some ways but NOT the same
Chart 1 shows the demographic differences between Georgia and Texas. Both states have a minority group that comprises a significant percent of the citizen voting age population. In the Peach State, African Americans comprise 32% of the citizen voting age population (CVAP); In the Lone Star State, it is only 13%.
In the Peach State, Hispanics comprise 4% of the CVAP while in Texas it is 29%.
The Electorate by Race and Ethnicity
Chart 2 shows how the citizen voting age population (CVAP) in Georgia and Texas translate into votes. In both states, in 2020, minority groups cast about 40% of the vote. However, in Georgia, African Americans comprised 29% of the voters in comparison to 12% in Texas. In Georgia, Hispanics comprised 7% of the vote; and, in Texas 23%.
What Presidential Ticket Did the Voters Favor?
Chart 3 shows that in 2020, the Democratic Presidential Ticket received 88% of the African American vote in Georgia and 90% in Texas. In Georgia, the Democratic Presidential Ticket received 62% of the Hispanic vote and in Texas and 58%.
In each state, the Democratic Presidential Ticket increased their share of the White vote, compared to 2016. In Georgia, the Democratic Presidential Ticket increased their share of the White vote by 6% and Texas by 3%.
Majority of Hispanics Favor Democrats, but…
Chart 4 shows the share of the vote the Presidential Tickets have received in Texas from the major voting groups. Election Day Exit polls conducted by the NEP since 2004 show that in Presidential contests the voting group that has split their share of the vote in a more even manner are Hispanics.
Conclusion
So why did the Democratic Presidential Ticket win in Georgia and lose in Texas? In short, the American Community Survey CVAP estimates and the CNN exit polls suggest that there are three factors that continue to keep statewide Democratic Party affiliated candidates from winning in Texas: 1) The Democratic Presidential ticket is not receiving enough votes from Whites; 2) The percent of the vote comprised by African American voters in Texas is too small, compared to Georgia; 3) Hispanics are not voting for Democratic Party candidates at the level that Whites vote for Republicans and African Americans vote for Democrats.
In other words, the results in Georgia and Texas in the November 3, 2020 election are explained by the percent of White, Hispanic and African American citizen voting age population in each state, the number of votes each group’s CVAP produced and the percent of the vote each voting group cast for each presidential ticket.
