A review of Census demographic data for State Representative Districts in Harris County maintained by the Texas Legislative Council indicates that non-African American candidates should think twice before bidding to fill a vacancy in Congressional District 18.
There are six State Representative Districts held by African American Democrats in the State’s biggest County. In District 131, the Hispanic population is 52% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 29%. In District 139, the Hispanic population is 45% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 22%. In District 141, the Hispanic population is 49% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 24%. In District 142, the Hispanic population is 47% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 28%. In District 146, the Hispanic population is 29% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 13%. And in District 147, the Hispanic population is 40% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 21%. The aggregate population percentage of these districts is 13% white, 38% Black, 44% Hispanic and 5% Asian. Hispanics comprise the plurality of the population. However, Spanish surname queries suggest Hispanics only comprise 23% of the overall registered voters.
In comparison, in Harris County, there are five State Representative Districts held by Hispanic Democrats. In District 140, the Hispanic population is 83% and the Spanish surname count is 63%. In District 143, the Hispanic population is 78% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 59%. In District 144, the Hispanic population is 78% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 60%. In District 145, the Hispanic population is 65% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 43%. And in District 148, the Hispanic population is 56% and the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 33%.
Like in political districts throughout the state and country, the Hispanic electorate is not equal to its population. Why? According to the 2018-2022 American Community Survey (ACS), in Harris County, only an estimated 64% of the total Hispanic adult population is eligible to vote [edited]. For African Americans, the adult population voter eligibility is 95% [edited]. That is the key demographic variable politicians, media, and the public need to know to better understand the discrepancy between the total Hispanic population and the total number of Hispanic registered voters in a political district. The ACS data shows that for Hispanics to comprise a majority or strong percentage of the registered voters, the Hispanic population in a political district must be overwhelming.
During recent redistricting cycles, to compensate for the lack of African American population and changing demographics in traditional African American areas, state redistricting committees have added more Hispanic enclaves to state and federal African American opportunity districts to maintain their “majority minority” status. Thus, a shifting African American population within the county has aided the growth of the Hispanic population in Congressional District 18.
To ambitious non-African American politicians, the changing Census population estimates in Congressional District 18 make it seem attainable. The reality is that in Congressional District 18, Hispanics may comprise 43% of the population but Spanish surnames only account for 23% of the registered voters. Conversely, African Americans only comprise about 35% of the population but they comprise about half of the registered voters. In short, despite not comprising the plurality of the population in the district, African Americans are still the preeminent electoral force. And voting trends suggests that a non-African American cannot win Congressional District 18 in a Democratic primary. In other words, all the stars in the universe would need to be lineup exactly right for the district’s electorate to nominate a non-African American in a historically African American district.
For these reasons, currently, the candidacy of a non-African American in Congressional District 18 is not viable or prudent.
