This presentation provides the 2020 Census estimated population and voting age population (VAP) totals for Spring Branch Independent School District (SBISD) with emphasis on Hispanics. It is meant to provide data that place into context the issues that impact the empowerment of Hispanics in all levels of government.
According to the 2020 Census, Hispanics comprise an estimated 39% of the population in Spring Branch Independent School District and are the second largest population group in the district; Whites comprise an estimated 42%, Blacks 7%, Asians 9% and others 3%. As it relates to voting age population in SBISD, Hispanics comprise 36%, Whites 45%, Blacks 7%, Asians 9%, and Others 3%. The population and voting age population totals were extracted from the 2020 Census Redistricting Data Summary File for Harris County, guided by a list of voting precincts for SBISD appearing on the Harris County Elections office website. Be aware that a review of the total number of registered voters in voting precincts in Spring Branch ISD, in comparison to registered voters in the same precincts at the County level, show that ten of the voting precincts are only in-part within the district. This is evident because in those ten voting precincts 44% of the registered voters are not in SBISD. This means that a portion of the population and voting age population in those ten precincts is not within SBISD. This fact may impact the total numbers for each race and ethnicity group which appear on the provided table. However, the impact on the provided population percentages should be minimal.
For Hispanics, the percent share of population nor the voting age population is reflected in the eligible voter population largely due to two factors. Among the major population groups, Hispanics are the youngest population. The 2020 Census estimates that 31% of Hispanics residing in SBISD are under 18 years of age. In comparison, 20% of Whites, 25% of Blacks and 20% of Asians are under 18 years old. The youthfulness of the Hispanic population manifests in this manner. While Hispanics comprise 39% of the SBISD population, they only comprise 36% of the VAP.
Citizenship status also has an impact on the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. Many Hispanics are legal permanent residents that have not taken the last step in the immigration journey and sought naturalization. Some Hispanics have other classifications, including but not limited to Temporary Protected Status (TPS), Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and what the immigration service use to categorize as unregistered entries (undocumented).
The impact age and the lack of citizenship status has on the Hispanic population voter eligibility can be seen by juxtaposing the population and citizen voting age population for Harris County. According to the 2020 Census Redistricting Data Summary File, Hispanics comprise 43% of the County’s population, Whites 28%, Blacks 19%, Asians 7%, and Others 3%. But the Census’ American Community Survey released in 2019 estimates that Hispanics only comprised 29% of Harris County’s CITIZEN voting age population, Whites 41%, Blacks 23%, Asian 6% and others 1%. If the countywide comparison of population and citizen voting age population is applied to the SBISD, it suggests that the 39% of the population Hispanics comprise in the school district may only translate to 26% of the citizen voting age population. In contrast, Whites may comprise 42% of the population but may be 54% of the CVAP or beyond. In both instances, the data shows that when the Hispanic citizen voting age population is not equal to its population, the eligible voter population is skewed and Whites are politically overrepresented.
A surname query of the Harris County registered voters conducted on the August 2021 voter roll, using a Census glossary of over 12,000 Spanish-surnames, further underlines the effect age and citizenship status has on the Hispanic population. The query shows that Spanish-surnames comprised only 24% of the County’s registered voters. That is way short of the 43% of the population Hispanics comprise countywide. Likewise, a surname query of the SBISD registered voter population similarly indicates that while Hispanics comprise 39% of the school district’s population, Spanish-surnames comprised only 17% of the registered voters.
Census data indicates that in political jurisdictions with a large concentration of Hispanics like Harris County or Spring Branch ISD, age and citizenship status cause an organic dilution of the Hispanic eligible voter population. However, despite the circumstantial dilution, the number of Hispanics who are eligible to vote remain significant.
In political terms, the natural or circumstantial dilution of the Hispanic eligible voter population is beside the point. The question is whether the method employed by a political jurisdiction to elect the members of its governing body, be it a single-member district or at-large, manufacture an unnatural dilution of the Hispanic eligible voter population that results in unequal political representation. History shows that both election systems produce similar behavior but different results. That is, in both systems the group that comprises the majority of voters tends to vote for candidates of their own race or ethnicity. However, in jurisdictions that use the single-member district system the elected governing bodies tend to be more reflective of the diversity of the political jurisdiction. While, in jurisdictions that utilize the at-large system, like Spring Branch ISD, election results show that they struggled in that respect.
In all, the data provided by the Census shows that the size of the Hispanic eligible voter population is significant but it is not commensurate to its vast overall population. More importantly, it provides an understanding of why the second largest population in the U.S. remains politically underrepresented.
[This is a work in-progress. Any error may be attributed to the author.]
