Click HERE Political Periodic Table for TX

Does the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) in a political jurisdiction predict the outcome of an election? If so, what is the combination of White, Black, Hispanic and Asian CVAP that would turn a Red political jurisdiction to Blue or vice-versa. The objective of this essay is to examine the impact CVAP has on election results statewide and in Texas’ two largest counties.

CVAP is an acronym use by the US Census Bureau for the special tabulation providing data on the populace of political jurisdictions by race and ethnicity who are 18 years of age or older and US citizens.

According to The 2011-2015 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates, the CVAP for Texas and its two largest counties is as follows:

In Harris County, the CVAP is 6 percent Asian, 22.5 percent Black or African American, 43.1 percent White and 27 percent Hispanic or Latino;

In Dallas County,  the CVAP is 4.5 percent Asian, 26.7 percent Black or African American, 45.1 percent White and 21.9 percent Hispanic or Latino.

In Texas, statewide, the CVAP is 3.3 percent Asian, 12.9 percent Black or African American, 54.4 percent White and 27.8 percent Hispanic or Latino.

Dallas County turned Blue in 2006. In Dallas County, currently, 54.9 percent of the CVAP is comprised by Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. The CVAP percentages suggest that one of the reasons Dallas County turned Blue before Harris County is because its Black CVAP population is higher than Harris County. In fact, the CVAP data shows that in any CVAP grouping where African American are prominent than Hispanics, a decrease in the Republican share of the vote is noticeable. This is most evident in the grouping on the periodic table where Whites are 45 to 49 percent of the CVAP which includes Dallas County. The Democratic gubernatorial candidate won 52 percent of the vote in the 2010 and 2014 elections. In Harris County, where the Black CVAP is 4 percent less, the Democratic Party gubernatorial candidate failed to reach 50 percent. That affirms the common notion that African Americans tend to be the most dependable and important vote for Democratic party candidates.

Harris County is now electorally blue in presidential years, a trend that began in 2008. In total, 56.9 percent of the CVAP in Harris County is comprised by Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. At this juncture, those demographics that theoretically favor Democrats have not been reflected in midterm elections. Why? In Harris County, the Hispanic CVAP is 4% higher than the Black CVAP. However, voter participation in non-presidential years tends to decrease among young voters. This has more of an impact on the Latino vote because surname analysis of the voter roll in Harris County indicate that half of all Spanish-surnamed registered voters are 18-39 years-old. Moreover, Hispanics are not as monolithic in their voting patterns as African Americans. In fact, the CVAP data shows that in 2010 and 2014 the Republican gubernatorial candidate won some groupings on the table where Whites account for less than 39 percent of the CVAP and Hispanics account for an overwhelming majority of the CVAP.

The data also shows that in groupings where Whites account for 75 percent or more of the CVAP, the share of the vote for Democratic candidates is less than 29 percent. This is probably true in every county in Texas, including Harris county and Dallas County. The difference is that in Texas’ two largest counties the Black CVAP is big enough, 23 and 27 percent, to help Democratic party candidates make up for the deficit among White voters. And that is not true statewide where African Americans only constitute 13 percent of the CVAP and the White CVAP is approximately 10 percent higher than in Dallas and Harris County. Overall, except for the grouping which includes Travis County, the Political Periodic Table shows that the larger the White CVAP the higher the vote for Republican Party candidates. This finding is more than likely true across the nation.

Interestingly, the gubernatorial election results in groupings where the White CVAP is less than 49 percent on the Political Periodic Table show that the 2014 Democratic Party candidate did not perform as well as the 2010 Democratic Party gubernatorial candidate. This suggests that aside from the CVAP who represents each major party at the top of the ballot may be just as important as voter turnout and the unique dynamic of each election year.

Knowing this information, what else does the relationship between the CVAP and election results say? What does it mean to voter mobilization efforts on both sides of the political spectra? And, what does it matter, as it pertains to local contests in Texas and the likelihood of change statewide?

Important questions to consider while reviewing the Political Periodic Table.

NOTE: This is a working draft.