The assertion, “Less than half of eligible Latinos are registered to vote,” appearing in a major newspaper story, “As Hispanics become Texas’ largest demographic group, their political clout lags,” is not supported by Census Bureau data or an analysis of Harris County official election records for the last presidential election. The inaccurate assertion, ten words in what is otherwise a solid thousand word story, is an example of how the strength of the Hispanic electorate in Texas is sometimes unwittingly diminished.
The U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Report, Voting and Registration in the Election of 2020, estimates the voter registration rate for Hispanics was 61%. In Harris County, if one divides the estimated number of eligible Spanish-surname registered voters for the 2020 Presidential election into the estimated Hispanic citizen voting age population provided by the 2016-2020 American Community Survey (ACS), the voter registration rate for Hispanics was 67%. The finding which is based on a Spanish-surname query of official election records is six percent above the voter registration rate for Hispanics reported by the Census.
According to Edison Research, a firm that has conducted “Election Day exit polls, early voter exit polls, RBS pre-election surveys, and also collected and tabulated the national vote across every county in the United States and has been the sole provider of Election Day data to the National Election Pool, consisting of ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News,” including for the November 3, 2020 election, Hispanics comprised 23% of the vote in Texas. Given that the 2016-2020 ACS places the Hispanic citizen voting age population in Harris County and Texas at 31%, it is highly probable that Hispanic voters also comprised about the same significant percentage of the vote in the state’s largest County.
So why do pronouncements belittling the Hispanic electorate continue?
It is likely that purveyors of these assertions have expected Hispanic voters to mirror the African American strong and steadfast support of the Democratic Party that has been consistently about 90% since 1968. As the expectation that all minorities would vote alike has gone unrealized, Hispanics are made out to be the reason for electoral failings, i.e. political punching bags.
Edison Research exit polling for the 2020 presidential election in Texas show Black and Hispanic voters’ support for the major political parties and the size of each voting group is not the same. The exit poll estimates that the Democratic Party affiliated presidential candidate received 90% of the African American vote and that African Americans only comprised 12% of the state’s electorate. In comparison, the exit poll shows that the Democrat won 58% of the Hispanic vote and Hispanics comprised 23% of the statewide vote. The poll shows that the Democrat won the Hispanic vote by double digits. However, to win Texas, if all other variables remain the same, the Democrat needed to obtain 71% of the Hispanic vote. In essence, the Edison Research exit poll shows the growing Hispanic electorate to be a political force that is already impacting the outcome of statewide elections.
Regardless of the reason people make assertions portraying the Hispanic voter registration rate as dismal, stakeholders should dismiss narratives suggesting that when one’s candidate does not achieve a desired result it means Hispanics did not vote. The only way to resolve electoral deficits is to recognize them and work harder to expand one’s knowledge of the diversity of the Hispanic community to enable effective communication and more successful voter engagement initiatives. Stakeholders should be cognizant that repeating false assertions about Hispanics’ voting and registration rates is not helpful to civic engagement efforts. Above all, stakeholders need to understand that political and electoral expectations for Hispanics should not be based on voting tendencies that were presumed fifty years ago before 71% of the current Hispanic registered voter population was born.
Like the tired derogatory “Sleeping Giant” metaphor, small seemingly innocuous assertions subtly paint Hispanics as electorally insignificant and negatively impact the perception of the Hispanic community. For these reasons, Hispanic leaders need to be vigilant and be ready to promptly address inaccurate assertions wherever and whenever they appear.
