PREFACE
In Harris County, the fortunes of countywide major political party candidates in even-numbered year November elections have changed. For many years, voter participation levels in Republican held Commissioner Precincts 3 and 4 were the foundation of Republican countywide dominance. The 2014 election was the last year Republican candidates won countywide public offices. A review of voting records for the 2014 and 2020 elections suggests that the number of votes these political districts yield may no longer be the sole determinant of who wins or loses. This analysis reviews other factors that may now be impacting election outcomes in the third largest county in the nation.
REGISTERED VOTERS
In the 2014 election, Republican held Commissioner Precincts 3 and 4 accounted for 53% of the County’s registered voter population. In the 2020 Election, it was 54%. Seemingly, nothing changed. However, an analysis of 2014 and 2020 voter registration records show that in that interval the number of registered voters grew by 416,175 in Harris County. It shows that citizens with a Spanish or Asian surname comprised 48% of the additions to the countywide voter roll. Moreover, the analysis found that the number of registered voters in Precinct 3 and 4 grew by 251,952. And, Spanish and Asian surnamed registered voters comprised 41% of that total.
WHERE DO SPANISH AND ASIAN SURNAME REGISTERED VOTERS RESIDE?
In Harris County, in the 2020 Election, of 573,250 Spanish-surname registered voters, 43% resided in Commissioner Precincts 3 and 4. In the 2014 election, of 408,724 Spanish-surname registered voters, 40% lived in those precincts. Similarly, in 2020, 70% of the Asian-surname registered voters resided in Commissioner Precinct 3 and 4. In 2014, the number was 68%.
STEADY GROWTH OF SPANISH AND ASIAN SURNAME VOTE
In the 2014 election, Spanish-surnames constituted 20% of the County’s registered voter population and comprised 12% of the vote. While overall voter participation in Harris County was 33%, the voter turnout for Spanish-surname voters was 20%. In the 2020 election, countywide, Spanish-surnames accounted for 23% of the registered voters and comprised 20% of the vote. While voter turnout was 67% countywide, Spanish-surname voter turnout was 59%.
It is important to know that according to a 2010-2014 U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS) population estimates for Harris County, Hispanics only constituted 27% of the county’s citizen voting age population (CVAP). A more recent ACS survey released in 2019 places the Hispanic CVAP at 29%.
In the 2014 Election, Asian-surname persons constituted 5% of the County’s registered voter population and comprised 3% of the vote. Countywide, voter turnout was 33%. In comparison, Asian-surname voter turnout was 22%.
In the 2020 election, Asian-surname voters accounted for 5% of the registered voters and 5% of the vote. While voter turnout was 67% countywide, Asian surname voter turnout was 66%.
According to a 2010-2014 U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS) population estimates for Harris County, Asians only constituted 5% of the county’s citizen voting age population (CVAP). A more recent ACS survey released in 2019 places the Asian CVAP at 6.5%.
SURNAME VOTERS IN REPUBLICAN DISTRICTS
The comparison of 2014 and 2020 election records shows that number of voters in Harris County grew by approximately 970,319. Of the additional voters, 33% were Spanish and Asian surnamed. In Precinct 3 and 4, the number of voters grew by some 558,860. Of that total, 30% of the voters were Spanish and Asian surnamed.
In 2020, 46% of the County’s Spanish-surname voters and 70% of the Asian-surname voters were produced by Commissioner precincts 3 and 4.
Overall, from one election to the next, the 2014 and 2020 election records show that the Spanish-surname vote grew by 320% and the Asian-surname by 322%. In contrast, the non-Spanish and non-Asian surname vote only grew by 111%.
NON-SPANISH-SURNAME and NON-ASIAN-SURNAME VOTE
In 2020, registered voters WITHOUT a Spanish-surname or an Asian-surname constituted 72% of the County’s registered voter population going into the election and accounted for 74% (47% White, 24% Black, and 3% other) of the vote. In Commissioner precincts 3 and 4, voter turnout for this group was 73%, six percent higher than the average turnout of 67%.
In 2014, registered voters WITHOUT a Spanish-surname or an Asian-surname constituted 76% of the registered voters and comprised 85% of the vote. More than likely, the overwhelming share of that total was probably white. In Commissioner precincts 3 and 4, voter turnout for this group was 40%, seven- percent higher than the average election turnout of 33%.
WHO VOTES IS WHAT MATTERS
The 2014 Harris County election records show that 57% of the registered voters who cast ballots resided in Republican held Commissioner Precincts 3 and 4. That year, Democratic Party affiliated candidates appearing at the bottom of the ballot seeking countywide public office received about 35% of the vote in Commissioner Precinct 3 and 4. In 2020, Commissioner Precincts 3 and 4 also produced 57% of the county’s vote. However, Democratic Countywide candidates received at least 46% of the vote in those precincts.
The comparison of the voter turnout in the 2014 and 2020 Elections and Republican Commissioner Precincts 3 and 4 provides quantifiable evidence that supports the belief that the number of voters in a given political district alone do not determine which political party’s countywide candidates will win. The data shows that who votes may be what matters.
