NOTE: A labeling change on the field headings on the official Harris County voter registration file for May 1, 2022 cause a query error resulting in a discrepancy in the extracted totals. As of June 13, 2022, the discrepancy has been addressed and the table and charts on the attached Excel file have been updated: This is a work-in-progress.
The Objective
This presentation provides a SNAPSHOT of the Spanish-surname registered voter population residing in Harris County’s unincorporated area on November 2, 2010 and May 1, 2022. It gages the size of the Latino electorate and its growth using a list of Spanish-surnames. Moreover, it explores what the findings may mean.
Spanish-surname Lists
The Texas Election Code outlines the information citizens must provide in the process of registering to vote. The Code does not require applicants to provide race and ethnicity. Consequently, not having the race and ethnicity question appear as a field on the voter registration application makes gaging the size of the Latino electorate and its growth an elusive challenge.
Historically, exit polls or telephone surveys have been the vehicles used to reveal all things related to the composition of the state’s electorate. In this instance, to estimate the size of the Latino electorate and get a glimpse into its growth, this quantitative research initiative relies on performing Spanish-surname queries on official voter registration lists.
Spanish-surname lists available to conduct surname queries vary in size. There is a list which only includes 639 surnames deemed “most common Hispanic surnames.” It appeared in a Census working paper in the mid-1990, (“Building A Spanish Surname List for the 1990’s – Census.gov”). According to the paper, the list “was constructed by tabulating the responses (surname by surname) to the Spanish origin question.” The Spanish-surname list employed in this process titled “Appendix E Census List of Spanish Surnames” consists of 12,497 Hispanic surnames. The number of surnames suggests that it is the ”Passel-Word Spanish Surname List” developed by Jeffrey Passel and David Word for the 1980 Decennial Census.
How Does the Use of the “Most Common 639 Hispanic Surnames” or the “Appendix E Census List of 12,497 Spanish Surnames”) impact findings?
Utilizing the list of 639 “Most Common Hispanic Surnames” to pull “Hispanic” surname registered voters from the Nov. 2, 2010 and May 1, 2022 voter registration rolls produces percentages for gender and rate of growth that replicate the percentages evidenced when using the “Appendix E Census List of 12,497 Spanish Surnames.” Still, the number of surnames appearing on each list employed to perform a query does impact the total number of Spanish-surnames identified. The smaller list produces about 84% of the total Spanish-surnames the larger list produces. The smaller list may under sample, missing many possible Latino registered voters. And, the limited number of surnames on the small list may not allow capturing the full diversity of the Latino community. Hence, the smaller list is not the basis for this analysis because it seems to produce a bare bones minimum estimate of “Hispanic” registered voters.
In short, queries performed to estimate the Latino electorate indícate that using either Spanish-surname list for calculating percentages for gender and growth produce a negligible margin of error. And, when using the large list to produce numerical totals, there is a probability that an acceptable margin of error exists.
General Findings
There are thirty-three incorporated cities in the County, including the fourth largest city in the nation. Currently, a surname query performed on the May 1, 2022 Harris County voter registration roll shows that 42% of the County’s Spanish-surname electorate resides in unincorporated Harris County.
In the fall of 2010, Spanish-surnames accounted for 17% of the registered voters in unincorporated Harris County. In the Spring of 2022, Spanish-surnames comprised 23% of the registered voters. The total Spanish-surname count jumped from 123,395 to 254,045, a 106% rate of growth. Spanish-surname females comprised a majority of Spanish-surname registered voters in 2010 and 2022. However, in percent increase in the last 12 years, Spanish-surnamed males slightly outpaced Spanish-surname females. Age-wise, Spanish-surnamed registered voters that are in the 18-29 and 65 and over groupings saw the largest increases.
The Latino share of the citizen voting age population in Harris County is only 29%. In that light, the five-percent Spanish-surname registered voter increase from 2010 to 2022 is more than significant.
American Community Surveys Place Context to the Growth of the Spanish-surname Voter Registration Data
American Community Surveys conducted after the 2000 and 2010 Census show that the White citizen voting age population (CVAP) in Harris County outside the city of Houston decreased from 69% to 51%. An American Community Survey released in 2019 shows that Latinos constitute 29% of the County’s citizen voting age population. If the 23% estimated Spanish-surname registered voter total according to a query performed on the May 2022 voter registration roll using the 12,597 Spanish-surname list is accurate, it suggests that narratives continually asserting Latinos register to vote at a dismal rate may be wrong. That is, the Spanish-surname registered voter count is 20% when the list of 639 Most Hispanic surnames is used and 23% when the list of 12,497 Spanish-surnames is used. The former divided by the 29% Hispanic CVAP equals a voter registration rate of 69%. The latter equals a 79% voter registration rate.
Conclusion
The comparison of the November 2, 2010 and the May 1, 2022 Spanish-surname voter registration count suggests that the Latino electorate has made considerable gains in unincorporated Harris County. More importantly, the quantification of the growth of the Spanish-surname registered voters confirm what may be obvious to the eye: Latinos, the largest population group and the second largest citizen voting age population in the County, are changing the makeup of the electorate throughout the third largest county in the nation.
