The objective of this presentation is to see how low the White Alone citizen voting age population (CVAP) has to be for Republican affiliated candidates to lose a county or statewide election.
According to the 2016-2020 American Community Survey (ACS) population estimates released on March 17, 2022, the WHITE alone citizen voting age population (CVAP) in Texas is 51% and in Harris County it is 39%.
Why is the citizen voting age population of political jurisdictions important?
In the 2020 Presidential election, Republicans only lost five of 218 counties (2%) where the White citizen voting age population was 40% or more. Those counties included, Dallas, Hays, Tarrant, Travis and Williamson.
The ACS CVAP estimates and election statistics also show there are 36 Texas counties where the White citizen voting age population is less than 40%. Republicans won 19 (53%) of those counties. The common factor in those 36 counties is that Hispanics comprise the majority of the CVAP and the African American CVAP is too low to impact the overall voter turnout.
If the trends evidence by the ACS county-by-county citizen voting age population and voting analysis hold, it is highly likely that Republican Party affiliated candidates will win the statewide contests in the 2022 Midterm Elections.
However, in any political jurisdiction where the White citizen voting age population is 40% or less and the Black citizen voting age population is 17% or more, i.e. Harris County, it is highly likely that Democratic Party affiliated candidates will win countywide election contests.
Attached are tables showing the County by County CVAP from the 2005-2009, 2011-2015, 2014-2018 and 2016-2020 American Community Survey. The voting totals were obtained from the Texas Secretary of State’s website section titled Election Results/Data.
The tables suggest that unless more Whites begin voting for Democrats, and/or Democrats increased their share of the Hispanic vote, the White CVAP is not low enough in Texas for Republicans to lose.
In short, in Texas, the county-by-county 2016-2020 ACS CVAP estimates and voting results are strong indicator of election outcomes.
(This narrative is a work-in-progress)
